Potential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin

Anticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance be combined with information the current status of to management towards currently uninvaded locations threat is high. We support by developing predictive maps cover for cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), a problematic invader that transform plant communities. integrated our predictions mapped estimates quantify within lightly invaded areas. used quantile regression model as function climate, weather, disturbance, treating outputs low high scenarios. developed species-specific set covariates validated performance using spatially temporally independent data. Potential was higher in areas had burned, elevations, when fall germination conditions were more favorable. Our results highlight extensive across Great Basin increase levels alter fire behavior cause other ecological predict relative risk. provide scenarios resource allocation planning shrubland ecosystems remain relatively uninvaded. Combining species’ yield spatial action.