Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

Abstract Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of IPCC’s 5th (AR5) forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO 2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 2020 International Energy Agency (IEA) projections 2050. These between °C 3 warming 2100, a median 2.2 °C. The subset plausible IPCC does not represent all possible trajectories future warming. Collectively, they continued mitigation progress suggest world is presently lower trajectory than often assumed. However, these also indicate still off track limiting 21st-century 1.5 or below