Partition-Dependent Framing Effects in Lab and Field Prediction Markets
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Partition-dependent Framing Effects in Lab and Field Prediction Markets*
Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called "partitiondependence"). We show that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to bet on their beliefs about events. We report results of a short...
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How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field.
A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgme...
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In this paper we investigate three hypotheses which are inconsistent with expected utility theory, but may well be explained by prospect theory. More precisely, it deals with framing, the non-linearity of subjective probabilities, and the disposition effect. In addition, we study the correspondence of different experimental risk elicitation methods. Overall, 64 participants traded two assets on...
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The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events at a remarkable accuracy. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on the prediction accuracy in a field experiment. In order to do so, we compare three groups of users, corresponding to thre...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1099073