Online belief elicitation methods

How well do incentivized belief elicitation procedures work in online settings? We evaluate the quality of beliefs elicited from respondents, comparing several characteristics two widely used complex mechanisms (the Binarized Scoring Rule – BSR and a stochastic variation Becker–deGroot–Marschak mechanism—BDM) against flat fee baseline for variety (induced probabilities, first-order factual knowledge, second-order knowledge others). find that flat-fee method requires least amount time, BDM is most difficult to understand, there are no differences average accuracy induced across conditions. However, methods significantly different terms frequency reported at exactly 50%: leads mass on this belief, followed by BSR. Regarding beliefs, we also less-educated participants’ higher incentives treatments, attention, numeracy, education positively associated with these methods. Our results suggest environments may depend less formal incentive compatibility properties procedure (whether prevents “dishonest” reporting) than difficulty comprehending task how induce cognitive effort (thereby inducing subjects quantify or construct their beliefs).