Occurrence Prediction of Pine Wilt Disease Based on CA–Markov Model

Pine wilt disease (PWD) has become a devastating that impacts China’s forest management. It is of great significance to accurately predict PWD on geospatial scale prevent its spread. Using the Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model, this study predicts occurrence area in Anhui Province 2030 based PWD-relevant factors, such as weather, terrain, population, and traffic. spatial autocorrelation analysis, direction analysis other methods, we analyze change trend data 2000, 2010, 2020 2030, reveal propagation law disasters Province, warn for future prevention control measures. The results show following: (1) overall accuracy CA–Markov model disaster prediction 93.19%, which grid number 95.19%, Kappa coefficient 0.65. (2) In recent 20 years next 10 years, first decreasing then increasing. From 2000 downward trend. 2010 2020, increased rapidly, with an annual growth rate 140%. will slow down, reach 270,632 ha. (3) aggregation directional distribution characteristics map spots pine were significant. still significant after expansion susceptible area, but no longer (4) center shows moving southward. moved from Chuzhou Anqing. (5) mainly occurs north slope below 700 m above sea level 20° Province. break through traditional suitable range spread high altitude, slope, sunny slope. can provide scientific support region help effective China.