Northward expansion of fire-adaptative vegetation in future warming

Abstract Fire frequency and intensity are increasing due to higher temperatures more droughts. The distributions of fuels (vegetation in natural conditions) also changing response climate change. vegetation cold environments such as high latitudes altitudes is found move upward or northward global warming. However, few studies have investigated the distribution changes fire adaptive species warm environments. This study estimated compared a typical fuelwood, Eucalyptus globulus , under different scenarios. modeling techniques were adopted estimate current future scenarios both SSP245 SSP585 2060. Results show that probability existence Northern Hemisphere increases significantly ( p < 0.001) SSP585, especially North America Europe. Southern decreases. expands mid-latitude (40 N–60 N) Hemisphere. High carbon emissions contribute boost establishment These findings demonstrate shows tendency shifting change, highlighting challenge expansion fires