Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism

To capture the role of politics in tourism, we propose a novel measure to quantify political relations based on text analysis published diplomatic statements. We explain how affect outbound tourist flows from China Japan and Korea. Estimated monthly data (1997m1-2018m12), our model shows China-Japan disputes Korea China-Korea clashes influence number Chinese tourists going Japan. The effects are estimated peak after three months, but half vanish six months. also observe asymmetries effects—the respond more negative shocks than positive ones, territorial war history disputes.