Multi-decadal simulation of estuarine sedimentation under sea level rise with a response-surface surrogate model

Abstract Multi-decadal prediction of estuarine sedimentation with high-fidelity hydromorphodynamic models presents high computation costs, especially when accounting for stochasticity and uncertainty. A StochAstic model Multi-decadaL Estuarine Sedimentation (SeAMLESS) is formulated here to support a specific decision-need related resilience planning coastal management: estimating future dredging within basin different scenarios sea level rise rules dredging. SeAMLESS combines reduced-dimension process response-surface surrogate yield an ordinary differential equation that can be integrated over stochastic time series storm events. Applications show predict probabilities amounts minimal loss accuracy, compared model, while delivering O ( 10 4 − 5 ) reduction in computational costs.