Monte Carlo Simulation in a Peruvian Highway

Highways and roads are important for nations' development life quality. This is not different Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión expected to provide a solution the over-employed Carretera Central road. multimillionaire infrastructure project. Hence, it evaluate possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed Monte Carlo simulation such purpose. First, variables have been chosen segregated into input output. Variables like initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical savings in operative cost of vehicles, time triangular distribution. Traffic growth inflation rate Pert The project's Net Present Value Internal Rate Return selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has perform analysis. Consequently, research found high probability that can become profitable due its Return. Moreover, costs vehicles traffic had positive impacts on Value. However, investment negative relationship with variable. new should take prevision policies maintain flux. Thus, avoid closures both human natural sources. first Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk provides researchers, state officials, future managers, users' valuable information elaborate preventive measures highway's social increase benefits.