Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey

Abstract. Modelling the seismic potential of active faults and associated epistemic uncertainty is a fundamental step probabilistic hazard assessment (PSHA). We use SHERIFS (Seismic Hazard Earthquake Rate In Fault Systems), an open-source code allowing us to build models including earthquake ruptures involving several faults, model seismicity rates on North Anatolian (NAF) system in Marmara Region. Through iterative approach, converts slip rate into that follow magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) defined at fault level, complex multi-fault off-fault while exploring underlying uncertainties. logic tree, we explore uncertainties concerning locking state NAF Sea Marmara, maximum possible rupture system, shape MFD ratio seismicity. The branches tree are weighted according match between modelled calculated from local data, catalogue palaeoseismicity. addition, result physics-based simulator RSQSim inform increase weight hypotheses compatible with simulator. Using both data branches, able reduce affecting built this study will be used following article calculate probability collapse building Istanbul.