Modeling nonstationary temperature maxima based on extremal dependence changing with event magnitude

نویسندگان

چکیده

The modeling of spatiotemporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency heatwaves a changing climate assess environmental, societal, economic health-related risks they entail. Here, we study annual maxima over Southern Europe using century-spanning dataset observed at 44 monitoring stations. Extending spectral representation max-stable processes, our framework relies on novel construction max-infinitely divisible processes which include covariates to capture nonstationarities. Our new model keeps popular process boundary parameter space, while flexibly capturing weakening extremal dependence increasing quantile levels asymptotic independence. This is achieved by linking overall magnitude spatial event its correlation range such way that more extreme events become less spatially dependent, thus localized. reveals salient features variability European extremes, it clearly outperforms natural alternative models. Results show extent smaller for severe higher elevations recent are moderately wider. probabilistic assessment 2019 confirms severity both individual sites, especially when compared climatic conditions prevailing 1950–1975. results could be exploited practice dynamics, design suitable region-specific mitigation measures.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1941-7330', '1932-6157']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1214/21-aoas1504