Model ETAS Spatio-Temporal pada Analisis Pemetaan Intensitas Kegempaan di Wilayah Sumatera

High seismic activity forces Indonesia to mitigate natural disasters minimize the impact of these disasters. One mitigation efforts that can be done is know possibility an earthquake occurring in area. Earthquakes, which are random phenomena, cannot determined with certainty. Therefore, studies seismological statistics used. discusses occurrence earthquakes epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. This model describes main followed by aftershocks. The ETAS model, only considers parameters time and event magnitude, was developed into a Spatio-temporal also spatial or locations. study used analyze Sumatra region’s from 2000-2022. Earthquake data sources obtained United State Geological Survey (USGS). Based on analysis, expressed terms conditional intensity function shows occur Sumatera region large magnitude tend produce as well. component spatio-temporal explained mapping peak ground acceleration (PGA). results PGA show prone along north west coasts region, values ranging 0.2 g 0.9 g. larger value means, higher risk area marked reddish-yellow dot contour.