Middle East Climate Response to the Saharan Vegetation Collapse during the Mid-Holocene

Abstract Understanding climate change in the Middle East (ME) is crucial because people’s living environment depends on rain-fed crop systems. It remains unclear whether ME would be affected by Saharan vegetation collapse at end of mid-Holocene (MH). Proxy data suggest a transition from humid to more arid conditions during period 6.5–5 kyr BP. Using set idealized sensitivity experiments with an Earth system model (EC-Earth), we infer that shift plays role this wet-to-dry over ME. The experimental results show greening can significantly increase late winter and early spring precipitation reason decreases surface albedo, which induces warming North Africa generation anomalous low-level cyclonic flow, transports moisture tropical Red Sea also flows Mediterranean region through enhanced mid- upper-level westerlies. carried westerly southwesterly lifted upon reaching Mesopotamia Zagros Mountains, substantially increasing there. When Sahara removed, drier condition happens simulation further shows substantial decrease wheat yield reduction vegetation, consistent paleoclimatic reconstructions. These imply future changes land cover may have climatic agricultural impacts East.