Mapping Impacts of Climate Change on the Distributions of Two Endemic Tree Species under Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP)

Pistacia eurycarpa Yalt and khinjuk Stocks are two important endemic tree species inhabiting mountainous regions in Iraq. Their cultural, medical, ecological benefits have captured the interest of this study. Numerous researchers revealed how to what extent global climate change alters species’ habitats distribution. This approach aims quantify current future distribution these region provide baseline data on respond changing environment. Three socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 585) general circulating models (GCMs), MIROC-ES2L BCC-CSM2-MR, been utilized examine probable geographical shift during different time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100). study used MaxEnt model geospatial techniques for: (i) anticipating present level distributions assessing impact possible distributions; (ii) estimating areas overlap; (iii) finding most significant environmental variables shaping their distributions, according 11 161 known localities. The findings that 30 out 36 modeling results showed range expansion both BCC-CSM2-MR with 16/18 for P. 14/18 khinjuk. overall expansions increase habitat suitability (mainly north northeast) were related precipitation wettest months, topography, soil type structure (i.e., Chromic Vertisols, Lithosols, Calcic Xerosols). These recent discoveries priceless new information forestry management efforts conservation plan Iraq, particularly overlapping highlands. Geospatial approaches correlation-based effective tools predicting spatial pattern mountain