Making Weather to Order

The Role of Meso-γ-scale Numerical Weather Prediction and Visualization for Weather-sensitive Decision Making

The cry wolf effect and weather-related decision making.

Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather-related decision making. Over a serie...

A multi-criteria decision making model for advanced repair-to-order and disassembly-to-order system

Sensor-embedded products (SEPs) eliminate a majority of uncertainties involved in product recovery by providing item-based life-cycle information. This information includes the content of each product and component conditions, and enables the estimation of remaining useful life of the components. Once the data on the products are captured, it is possible to make optimal recovery decisions witho...

Decision-making in Flight with Different Convective Weather Information Sources:

This paper reports preliminary and partial results of a flight experiment to address how General Aviation (GA) pilots use weather cues to make flight decisions. This research presents pilots with weather cue conditions typically available to GA pilots in visual meteorological conditions (VMC) and instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) today, as well as in IMC with a Graphical Weather Inform...

FORECASTER’S FORUM Weather Forecasting by Humans—Heuristics and Decision Making

The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing und...