منابع مشابه
Saving Imbalances and the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis
For several years prior to 2010, countries in the euro area periphery engaged in heavy borrowing from foreign private investors, allowing domestic spending to outpace incomes. Now these countries face debt crises refl ecting a loss of investor confi dence in the sustainability of their fi nances. The result has been an abrupt halt in private foreign lending to these economies. This study explai...
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This article aims to study the determinants of macroeconomic inertia in the euro area. To this end, it estimates a simple monetary DSGE model with private-sector learning, but which also includes more structural sources of inertia, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation. Economic agents are assumed to form nearrational expectations and to learn the model parameters over...
متن کاملSovereign risk and macroeconomic stability in the euro area
Sovereign risk premia have risen sharply in several European countries, contributed to increased credit spreads in the private sector. If monetary policy cannot offset these credit spreads because it is constrained by the zero lower bound, sovereign risk threatens macroeconomic stability: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In this paper, we put forward a t...
متن کاملCombining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates
European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries’ forecasts are often combined to obtain the forecasts of the Euro area macroeconomic aggregate variables. The aggregation weights which are used to produce the aggregates are often considered as combination weights. This paper investigates whether using different combination weights instead of the usual aggregation weights can help to provide more ...
متن کاملForecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables with Bayesian Adaptive Elastic Net
I use the adaptive elastic net in a Bayesian framework and test its forecasting performance against lasso, adaptive lasso and elastic net (all used in a Bayesian framework) in a series of simulations, as well as in an empirical exercise for macroeconomic Euro area data. The results suggest that elastic net is the best model among the four Bayesian methods considered. Adaptive lasso, on the othe...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Studia Europejskie -Studies in European Affairs
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1428-149X
DOI: 10.33067/se.4.2019.5