Low Probability-High Consequence Accidents

Low-Incidence, High-Consequence Pathogens

nfectious diseases that have epidemic or pandemic potential and spread rapidly through a population within a short time are an ongoing public health concern in industrialized and developing countries. Frequent exposure to infectious sources (e.g., food, infected animals, and vectors) or a high rate of person-to-person spread facilitates spread of these diseases. Foodborne illnesses and seasonal...

Low-probability High Consequence Considerations in a Multiobjective Approach to Risk Management

Uncertainties in Modeling Low Probability/High Consequence Events: Application to Population Projections and Models of Sea-level Rise

We present a simple method for estimating uncertainty in modeling and forecasts based upon an analysis of errors in old measurements and projections. Probabilities of large deviations are parametrized by an exponential function with one free parameter. We illustrate this formulation by quantifying uncertainties in national population projections and by estimating the probability of extreme sea-...

Cause-Consequence Modeling of Occupational Accidents in Construction Sites: A Retrospective Study in Iran

Introduction: Nearly half of occupational accidents in Iran occur in construction sites. Therefore, modeling of occupational accidents in these sites is one of the solutions to design safety strategies to reduce occupational accidents in the field of construction. This study was designed and conducted with the aim of modeling the cause-consequence of accidents in construction sites. Material a...

Very low probability lung scan findings: A need for change

This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of PE in patients with V/Q scans interpreted as representing a very low probability (VLP) of PE (1-3 small segmental perfusion defects with a normal chest radiograph). An analysis of the entire data set obtained during the PIOPED study was performed. Of the total of 1,359 patients in whom the presence or absence of PE was confirmed, 80 ...