Large-scale flood risk assessment under different development strategies: the Luanhe River Basin in China

Abstract Increasing resilience to natural hazards and climate change is critical for achieving many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In recent decades, China has experienced rapid economic development became the second-largest economy in world. This expansion led large-scale changes terrestrial (e.g., land use cover changes), aquatic construction of reservoirs artificial wetlands) marine reclamation) environments across country. Together with change, these may significantly influence flood risk and, turn, compromise SDG achievements. The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) one most afforested basins North undergone significant urbanisation since 1950s. However, basin-wide assessment under different scenarios not been considered, although this critically important inform policy-making manage synergies trade-offs between SDGs support long-term sustainable development. Using mainly open data, paper introduces a new framework systematically assessing social scenarios. A series model simulations are performed investigate projected 2030 reflect strategies. results analysed compared baseline simulation based on current conditions. Further investigations also provided consider impact dams reservoirs. potentially provide guidance future strategies maximise minimise various LRB.