Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

نویسندگان

چکیده

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter effect faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units regain previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate effects variety adaptation on caloric under four different scenarios maize, rice, soybean, wheat. Thereby, empirically identify areas that could new where be achieved by shifting existing into regions. The study uses an ensemble seven gridded crop models five CMIP6 models. We found 39% (SSP5-8.5) cropland avoid loss from end century. At low levels (SSP1-2.6), 85% currently cultivated land can draw shift within agro-ecological zone adaptation. assumptions available have major impacts effectiveness adaptation, which than half in SSP5-8.5. results highlight region-specific breeding efforts are required allow a successful change.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Global Change Biology

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1365-2486', '1354-1013']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649