Invasive risk assessment and expansion of the realized niche of the Oriental Garden Lizard Calotes versicolor species complex (Daudin, 1802)

Correlative species distribution modelling (SDM) can be a useful tool to quantify species’ realized niche and predict its potential for non-native ranges. The agamid lizard Calotes versicolor s.l. belongs the most widely distributed reptile taxa worldwide. In past, C. has been introduced several countries, including regions in Oriental, Neotropical Afrotropical realms, where strong negative impact on local fauna is assumed. Due complicated taxonomy existence of cryptic species, which are covered by this taxon, we used sensu lato four subtaxa (C. stricto, irawadi, vultuosus, farooqi) as target (1) compute correlative SDMs project them across globe highlight climatically suitable areas risk future invasion (2) based ecological concept, investigate if complex expanded climatic during process. We use two different SDM approaches, namely n-dimensional hypervolumes Maxent. N-dimensional non-hierarchically ranked approach, expansion niche, while Maxent, hierarchically model, focus potentially invasion. calculated final models s.l., one records from native range invaded range, well model each subtaxon. Our results show geographic into novel conditions an niche. reveal that currently inhabiting 13% but could find global surface area between 14,025,100 km2 53,142,600 km2. predictions large highly Australian, whereas only small Palearctic Nearctic realms provide moderately conditions. Further, some localities, especially those with high amount human traffic like ports or airports, might act multiplicators therefore stepping stone further areas.