Invasion risk by fruit trees mealybug Rastrococcus invadens (Williams) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate warming

The mango mealybug Rastrococcus invadens (Williams) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae) is a destructive and important insect pest of fruit trees in Africa Asia, especially the mango. Females nymphs feed on plant leaves fruits produce honeydew that causes sooty mold, leading to yield reduction. Although it an pest, distribution R. under different climate change scenarios has not been established. In this study, we predicted suitable habitat for occurrence current future [two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios: (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5) years 2050s 2070s], using environmental variables four ecological niche models viz ., maxent, random forest, boosted regression trees, support vector machines. performance accuracy these were evaluated area curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), correlation (COR), deviance. All had high (AUC ≥ 0.96, TSS 0.88, COR 0.74 deviance ≤ 0.3) predicting potential . Among models, forest algorithm highest = 0.99, 0.95, 0.91 0.14) , followed by maxent 0.97, 0.90, 0.81 0.22). However, model was best among algorithms precipitation wettest month (bio13) most crucial variable contributed predictions models. results revealed areas East, Central, West projected with suitability occur climatic conditions. Similarly, Bangladesh, Laos, Myanmar, India, Thailand, Vietnam Cambodia as well Brazil, Venezuela South America showed establishment. conditions (the 2070s), will increase regardless SSPs scenario indicating expansion geographical range pest. This be higher 2070s than 2050s. invasion risk SSP2-4.5 compared SSP5-8.5 scenario, year projection. Our serve early warning tool could guide prevent further spread new help developing effective management strategy against