Inherent Bounds on Forecast Accuracy due to Observation Uncertainty Caused by Temporal Sampling

Quantitative Performance Bounds in Biomolecular Circuits due to Temperature Uncertainty

Performance of biomolecular circuits is affected by changes in temperature, due to its influence on underlying reaction rate parameters. While these performance variations have been estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, how to analytically bound them is generally unclear. To address this, we apply control-theoretic representations of uncertainty to examples of different biomolecular circuits...

Improving Forecast Accuracy by Guided Manual Overwrite in Forecast Debiasing

We present ongoing work on a model-driven decision support system (DSS) that is aimed at providing guidance on reflecting and adjusting judgmental forecasts. We consider judgmental forecasts of cash flows generated by local experts in numerous subsidiaries of an international corporation. Forecasts are generated in a decentralized, non-standardized fashion, and corporate managers and controller...

The Effect of Observation Data Sampling Methods on Infiltration Areas by Maximum Entropy Model

Statistical modeling methods are based on multivariate regression methods and require the presence and absence location of data for the construction of the model. In most cases, there is no trustworthy absence data. Therefore, other methods that are based only on the presence of the phenomenon are used. Considering the importance of modeling - saving time and cost and the probable prediction of...

Illusory percepts of moving patterns due to discrete temporal sampling.

Continuously, moving objects under continuous illumination can be seen to move in a direction opposite to their actual motion. This illusory reversed motion can be explained as due to discrete temporal sampling of the moving stimulus by the visual system. If temporal sampling lies behind the illusory motion, then the probability of illusory motion should depend on the temporal frequency of the ...

Observation Impact on the Short Range Forecast