Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models

This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly we...

Interest Rates, ECB Communication and Inflation Expectations

Guiding and anchoring inflation expectations of the public are key tasks of modern central banks. In this paper we investigate how the European Central Bank (ECB) influences inflation expectations of professional forecasters. We argue that it is a good sign that interest rate changes as such are not significant in explaining inflation expectations: The ECB has been able to prepare professional ...

Noncausal Autoregressive Model in Application to Bitcoin/USD Exchange Rates

This paper introduces a noncausal autoregressive process with Cauchy errors in application to the exchange rates of the Bitcoin electronic currency against the US Dollar. The dynamics of the daily Bitcoin/USD exchange rate series displays episodes of local trends, which can be modelled and interpreted as speculative bubbles. The bubbles may result from the speculative component in the on-line t...

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Why Are Inflation and Real Interest Rates So Low? A Mechanism of Low and Floating Real Interest and Inflation Rates

Real interest and inflation rates have been very low in many industrialized countries since the Great Recession. In this paper, a mechanism of low and floating real interest and inflation rates is examined based on the concept a “Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path” and the law of motion for trend inflation. I show that, because the link between the marginal product of capital and the...