Inferring time-dependent calving dynamics at Helheim Glacier

Abstract We perform Bayesian inference of the parameters a time-dependent model ice flow and calving at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland. find that, while time-independent parameterization can recover mean observed terminus position, such is unable to sub-annual variability, even when forced with seasonally varying climate. To address this, we develop simple stochastic relating surface runoff rates threshold. Again inferring from observations, that this able reproduce observations respect both position characteristic temporal variability. This result demonstrates importance considering potential controls on in numerical models, which may include variable undercutting or runoff-dependent crevasse propagation.