Inference on forward exchange rate risk premium: reviewing signal extraction methods

Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper shows that even adjusted for the time-varying risk premiums implied by the yield curves across countries, uncovered interest parity is still strongly rejected by the data. Moreover, factors that predict the excess bond returns are found not significant at all in predicting the foreign exchange returns. These results reject the joint restrictions on the exchange rate and interest rate...

Forward-Looking Market Risk Premium

A method for computing forward-looking market risk premium is developed in this paper. We first derive a theoretical expression that links forward-looking risk premium to investors’ risk aversion and forward-looking volatility, skewness and kurtosis of cumulative return. In addition, investors’ risk aversion is theoretically linked to volatility spread, defined as the gap between the risk-neutr...

Risk Aversion, Efficient Markets and the Forward Exchange Rate

ISK is a characteristic of existence. Attempts to avoid it explain such arrangements as insurance, limited liability firms and diversification of investment portfolios. In recent years, risk aversion and the attendant premium for risk-bearing have been used increasingly to explain a stubborn paradox in the empirical exchange rate literature: the failure of the forward exchange rate to he an unb...

The Forward Exchange Rate and Macroeconomics

This paper discusses the conditions under which a risk premium is incorporated in the forward exchange rate. A new condition for the existence of a risk premium is proposed. We show that earlier models of the risk premium, which emphasize either the role of net foreign investment or of the relative supplies of ‘outside* assets, are not suited for assessing the effects of changes in macroeconomi...

The Risk Free Rate and the Market Risk Premium