منابع مشابه
Forecast Disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
www.philadelphiafed.org THE SURVEY’S DESIGN The SPF is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States, having been initiated in 1968 under the leadership of Victor Zarnowitz at the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. After conducting what was then known as the ASA-NBER Quarterly Economic Outlook Survey for 22 years, the ASA...
متن کاملMeasuring Economic Uncertainty Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they ncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recessio...
متن کاملDo Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases?
We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We nd evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data. Key words: Professional forecasters, data revisions, inattention. JEL classi...
متن کاملDifferential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
In this paper we estimate a simple Bayesian learning model to expectations data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We reformulate the model in terms of forecast revisions, which allows to abstract from differences in priors and to focus the analysis on the relationship between revisions and signal. The model depends on two parameters, the forecaster’s belief about the signal bias and ...
متن کاملInattentive Producers
I present and solve the problem of a producer who faces costs of acquiring, absorbing, and processing information. I establish a series of theoretical results describing the producer’s behaviour. First, I find the conditions under which the producer prefers to set a plan for the price he or she charges, or instead prefers to set a plan for the quantity he or she sells. Second, I show that the a...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Monetary Economics
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0304-3932
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.08.005