Improved associated conditions in rapid intensifications of tropical cyclones
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
“optimal” Conditions for Rapid Intensifications of Tropical Cyclones
Rapidly intensifying (RI) tropical cyclones (TC) are the major error sources in TC intensity forecasting. In order to improve the estimates of RI probability, association rules as a data mining technique are used here to facilitate the process of looking for candidate sets of conditions which have strong interactions with rapidly intensifying TCs. Compared to the relation analysis method, the t...
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Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a major error source in TC intensity forecasting. Unexpectedly strong storms can cause substantial damages and losses. In order to improve RI probability estimation, the association rule is used in this study in order to mine candidate sets of factors which have strong interactions with rapidly intensifying TCs. Our mining results identifi...
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The nonlinearity and complexity of the primitive equations have been key obstacles to our understanding of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly in relation to the dynamical processes leading to their rapid intensification. In this study, an axisymmetric model, in which all nonlinear terms in the horizontal momentum equations are retained, is used to examine analytically the effects of organize...
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Clouds within the inner regions of tropical cyclones are unlike those anywhere else in the atmosphere. Convective clouds contributing to cyclogenesis have rotational and deep intense updrafts but tend to have relatively weak downdrafts. Within the eyes of mature tropical cyclones, stratus clouds top a boundary layer capped by subsidence. An outward-sloping eyewall cloud is controlled by adjustm...
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I have four long-term goals. My first goal is to finalize the large body of work already carried out by the PI on the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast tracks out to 72 hours ahead. My second goal is to apply similar, as well as new, ideas to the predictability of forecast intensity out to 72 hours ahead. My third goal is to carry out observing system simulation experiments (OSSE...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2007gl031241