Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China

Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute scientific assessment vegetation–climate interactions. Here, spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics vegetation in China were projected compared based on comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios, five sensitivity levels proposed. The results show that CSCS performs well simulating distribution. number types increase from 36 40. Frigid–perhumid rain tundra alpine meadow are most distributed types, with an area more than 78.45 × 104 km2, whereas there no conditions suitable for tropical–extra-arid tropical desert China. Some plants benefit a certain extent. Warm temperate–arid warm temperate zone semidesert expand by 1.82% 2080s. A continuous expansion 18.81 km2 northward shift 124.93 km forest occur across all three scenarios. However, some experience inevitable changes. More 1.33% cool temperate–extra-arid continuously shrink. Five present interphase extreme scenarios result wider ecosystem responses. evolutionary trend cold–arid warm–wet is prominent feature despite variability responses