Hydrological Change Detection and Process Simulation for a Semi-Arid Catchment in Northern China

In-depth understanding and accurate simulation of hydrological processes are great significance for sustainable development management water resources. The study focused on a semi-arid catchment, the upper Tang River catchment in northern China, investigated performance RCCC-WBM model based detection results trend, mutation, periodicity. Results show that (1) as result climate change intensive human activities, observed runoff series after TFPW (trend-free pre-whiting) pretreatment presented significant downward trend with mutation point 1996; (2) abrupt air temperature was also 1996 rising while annual precipitation exhibited an insignificant declining no obvious during 1973–2014; (3) had periodic variations roughly 7a multiples oscillation strongest around 14a, showed only one dominant period 28a; (4) performed well discharge before year but gradually lost its stability 1996, which mainly affected by anthropogenic activities. It is essential to accurately identify characteristics elements improve applicability models changing environment future studies.