How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal

نویسندگان

چکیده

Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral sector is to climate by 2050 what are implications for formally approved Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The capacity factors wind, solar hydropower demand response temperature estimated 22 projections along Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 8.5. eTIMES_PT optimization model used assess its combined on cost-optimal configuration of 2050. Results show that lowers generation 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial temporal resolution including patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness photovoltaic vis-à-vis While does onshore wind production, offshore positively affected, being a climate-resilient option Portugal. Annual unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes levies) only increase up 4% with change, but seasonal have higher variability. analysis highlights affects annual needs be included energy planning.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Energy

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1873-6785', '0360-5442']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122106