How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?

How Big Is the Federal Government?

The federal government is larger than conventional budget measures suggest. Many tax preferences are effectively spending programs. Adding these spending-like tax preferences to federal outlays and receipts makes the government appear about 4 percent of GDP larger. The 1986 tax reform cut these benefits, but they have since rebounded to a larger share of GDP than before. Using this broader meas...

How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan

Government Debt

This paper surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt. It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The paper then presents the conventional theory of government debt, which emphasizes aggregate demand in the short run and crowding out in the long run. It next...

The Optimal Level of Government Debt in Iran

The purpose of the current study is to determine the optimum level of the governmentchr('39')s debt for the period of the sixth plan period of the economic, social a eviation of the target variables economic growth rate, inflation rate, real GDP and nd cultural development of the government. Therefore, a function of inter periodic loss welfare has been devised for the policy maker in which the ...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt in Iran

One of the major problems in Iranian economy is continuous deficit in the budget operating balance due to the non-optimal government size. The government often financed a part of this deficit by debt cearation. Government debts depends on its size and decomposition have variety macroeconomic effects. So, this study investigated the macroeconomic effects of government debt in iran during 1352-13...