How Do Regional Distributions of Daily Precipitation Change under Warming?

Abstract Global warming is changing the intensity distribution of daily precipitation, with an increased frequency heavy precipitation and reduced light/moderate in general circulation model (GCM) projections. Projected future CMIP5 GCM changes regional can be described by a combination two idealized modes: decrease mode, representing reduction at all rain rates; shift where shifts toward heavier rates. A increase are projected most regions, but magnitude change shows large variations. The modes generally capture from to rates do not recreate very highest lowest We propose simple framework for deep convective based on dry static energy (DSE) budget, which provides physical explanation these regions seasons convection dominates precipitation. One possibility that mode driven inhibition (CIN). In this DSE framework, moisture under could influence shape distribution, particularly rates, does govern overall well Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Changes free respond only local (in e.g., moisture) also constrained transport associated large-scale circulation.