Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

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چکیده

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Hidden Markov Models for the Activity Profile of Terrorist Groups

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a d-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of ...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics

سال: 2013

ISSN: 1932-6157

DOI: 10.1214/13-aoas682