Has There Been a Transgender Tipping Point? Gender Identification Differences in U.S. Cohorts Born between 1935 and 2001

Using a probability-based sample from 39 U.S. states general health survey, the author evaluates popular claims of “transgender tipping point” by estimating probabilities identifying as transgender and gender nonconforming among cohorts respondents born between 1935 2001. Respondents after 1984 are significantly more likely to identify or than in earlier cohorts. However, cohort changes identification vary along lines sex assigned at birth, race/ethnicity, college attendance. Within different cohorts, these factors have associations with higher lower odds nonconforming, sometimes contrasting narratives media representation patterns. Analyzed context, findings provide empirical evidence that several distinct population-level biographical availability patterns, including convergences, reversals, persistence demographic associations, shaped prevalence composition populations over time.