Hartian Positivism as a (Plausible) Error Theory

In Defense of Positivism

ion Low Empirical Generaliz-

Positivism and realism pdf

Is There A Plausible Theory for Risky Decisions?

A large literature is concerned with analysis and empirical application of theories of decision making for environments with risky outcomes. Expected value theory has been known for centuries to be subject to critique by St. Petersburg paradox arguments. More recently, theories of risk aversion have been critiqued with calibration arguments applied to concave utility of payoffs. This paper exte...

Foundations for a New Theory of Plausible and Paradoxical Reasoning

The processing of uncertain information has always been a hot topic of research since mainly the 18th century. Up to the middle of the 20th century, most theoretical advances have been devoted to the theory of probabilities through the works of eminent mathematicians like J. Bernoulli (1713), A. De Moivre (1718), T. Bayes (1763), P. Laplace (1774), K. Gauss (1823), S. Poisson (1837), E. Borel (...

Is There a Plausible Theory for Decision under Risk?

Theories of decision under risk that model risk averse behavior with decreasing marginal utility of money have been critiqued with concavity calibration arguments. This paper introduces a convexity calibration that applies to decision theories that represent risk aversion with nonlinear transformation of probabilities. We explain the duality of calibrations that imply implausible large stakes r...