Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious with several outbreaks in Asian-Pacific countries, including Thailand. With such epidemic characteristics potential economic impact, HFMD significant public health issue Generally, contagious/infectious diseases’ transmission dynamics vary across geolocations due to different socioeconomic situations, demography, lifestyles. Hence, nationwide comprehensive model of the disease’s can provide information understand better predict outbreak this efficiently effectively manage its impact. However, there no (i.e., inclusion reinfections model) HFDM for This paper has endeavoured promote modelling HFMD’s comprehend reinfection cases. We have formulated SEIRS epidemiological dynamic vitals, reinfections, explore prevalence. also introduced periodic seasonality reproduce seasonal effect. The pattern spread uneven provinces Thailand, so we used K -means clustering algorithm cluster those into three groups highly, moderately, least affected levels). analysed records collected from district hospitals, which suggest For example, found that 11% (approximately) infectious patients return repeat treatment within study period. performed sensitivity analysis indicates basic reproduction number ( id="M2"> R 0 ) sensitive rate id="M3"> β at infected people recover id="M4"> γ ). By fitting confirmed data each cluster, id="M5"> was estimated be 2.643, 1.91, 3.246 are greater than 1. Based on high id="M6"> , recommends will persist coming years under identical cultural environmental conditions.