Habitat–trait interactions that control response to climate change: North American ground beetles (Carabidae)

Aim As one of the most diverse and economically important families on Earth, ground beetles (Carabidae) are viewed as a key barometer climate change. Recent meta-analyses provide equivocal evidence abundance changes terrestrial insects. Generalizations from traits (e.g., body size, diets, flights) insights into understanding community responses, but syntheses for Carabidae have not yet emerged. We aim to determine how habitat trait syndromes mediate risks contemporary future change community. Location North America. Time period 2012–2100. Major taxa studied Ground (Carabidae). Methods synthesized data 136 species National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) additional raw studies across America with remotely sensed characteristics in generalized joint attribute model. Combined Light Detection RAnging (LiDAR) hyperspectral imagery were used derive at continental scale. evaluated response by expanding velocity given Results Habitat contributes more variations community-weighted mean compared climate. Across America, grassland fliers benefit open habitats hot, dry climates. By contrast, large-bodied, burrowing omnivores prefer warm-wet climates beneath closed canopies. Species-specific predicted fitted model under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios controlled interactions heterogeneity. For example, mid-size, non-flier is projected decline much continent, magnitudes declines reduced or even reversed where canopies open. Conversely, temperature dominates small, frequent flier Agonoleptus conjunctus, causing be closely linked regional changes. Main conclusions reorganization being governed climate–habitat (CHI). responses CHI explained syndromes. The fact that mediates warming impacts has immediate application critical designation carabid conservation.