Ground Motion Prediction of High-Energy Mining Seismic Events: A Bootstrap Approach

Induced seismicity has been a serious problem for many coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin Poland decades. The occurring mining tremors of rock mass generate seismic vibrations that cause concern to local population and some rare cases lead partial damage buildings on surface. estimation peak ground acceleration values caused by high energy is an important part hazard assessment areas. A specially designed bootstrapping procedure applied estimate motion prediction model makes it possible calculate confidence intervals these with no assumptions about statistical distribution recorded data. Monte Carlo sampling replacement 132 records measured exceeding 150 mm/s2 have performed mean corresponding upper limits 95% intervals. bootstrap obtained reflect much better observed PGA therefore provide more accurate estimators compared GMPE from multiple regression analysis. analysis high-energy provides significant information level surface infrastructure. new tool proposed allows reliable determination identification areas are prone activity.