Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Abstract. Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant broadly adapted to varying environments, growth and irrigation water demand may be challenged by future climate change. To study impacts change productivity in different regions across world requirements related it, we use process-based, spatially detailed biosphere hydrology model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed land). We find our modeled yield levels good agreement with reported values simulated consumption production similar published estimates. Following Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, employ ensemble five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2011–2099 period simulate yields. that irrigated does not suffer from if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed more sensitive conditions. Considering overall effect a changing fertilization, current cropland steadily increases most RCPs. Starting ∼65 million tonnes 2010, RCP4.5 RCP6.0 equates 83 92 at end century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, global rises than 50 % 2099. Taking only into account, projected considerably shrinks scenarios, up one-third or 43 RCP8.5. The simulation virtual content (VWC) grown elevated results all scenarios less VWC compared ambient notably decreased 2000 m3 t−1 areas where purely By 2040, average declines currently 3300 3000 t−1, reduction continues 30 2100 While decreases effect, temperature acts opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial effects, would increase RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching 5000 Given economic relevance production, poses additional stress deserves special attention. Changes demands importance, as known its intense consumption. implications one hand impact resources other illustrate need assess how affect resource requirements. Our should regarded optimistic, because high uncertainty respect fertilization lack implementing processes boll abscission heat stress. Still, inclusion allows various large-scale studies hydrological factors agricultural carbon sequestration.