Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region

In arid to semi-arid regions, vulnerability climate change combined with the overexploitation of water resources is jeopardizing food security. Souss-Massa region in central Morocco, rural population relies on growing olives for a living. The management these orchards mostly traditional under rainfed irrigation, which induces high level dependence variability. present study, we investigate long-term trends relationship between observed olive yields and global patterns during period 1973–2014. We apply lagged Spearman’s correlations cross-wavelet analysis detect potential influence El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic (NAO) Pacific decadal (PDO) yield variability orchards. results Mann-Kendall test show statistically significant decreasing trend studied period. Statistically negative were (lag = ?1) spring summer NINO 3.4 autumn PDO. No NAO IOD observed. wavelet coherence annual PDO ENSO revealed that highest values power spectrum occurred 0) ENSO, both an antiphase relationship. During period, extreme events Niña Niño years corresponded below average yields.