Future Projections of East Asian Climate Change from Multi-AOGCM Ensembles of IPCC SRES Scenario Simulations

Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using 28 AOGCMs

Probabilistic projection of climate change consists of formulating the climate change information in a probabilistic manner at either global or regional scale. This can produce useful results for studies of the impact of climate change impact and change mitigation. In the present study, a simple yet effective approach is proposed with the purpose of producing probabilistic results of climate ch...

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version...

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations

Recent and potential future increases in global temperatures are likely to be associated with impacts on the hydrologic cycle, including changes to precipitation and increases in extreme events such as droughts. We analyze changes in drought occurrence using soil moisture data for the SRES B1, A1B and A2 future climate scenarios relative to the PICNTRL pre-industrial control and 20C3M twentieth...

Will Amazonia dry out ? : Magnitude and Causes of 2 change from IPCC climate model projections

Will Amazonia Dry Out? Magnitude and Causes of Change from IPCC Climate Model Projections

The Amazon rain forest may undergo significant change in response to future climate change. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, the authors analyzed the output of 24 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model, Vegetation–Global–Atmosphere–Soil (VEGAS), driven by these climate output. Their re...