Future air pollution related health burdens associated with RCP emission changes in the UK

Three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate future ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United Kingdom (UK) for 2050s relative 2000s with an air quality model (AQUM) at a 12 km horizontal resolution. The present-day attributable fractions (AF) of mortality associated long-term exposure annual mean O3, NO2 PM2.5 have accordingly been estimated first time regions across England, Scotland Wales. Across three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 RCP8.5), simulated daily maximum 8-h (MDA8) O3 concentrations increase compared present-day, likely due decreases NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions, leading less titration by NO. Annual decrease under all 2050s, mostly driven sulphur (SO2) respectively. AF MDA8 is RCPs. Reductions lead reductions periods RCPs, both pollutants. Total burdens also highly sensitive population projections. Accounting projections exacerbates differences total UK-wide O3-health between up factor ~3 but diminishes NO2-health burdens. For PM2.5, accounting results additional deaths brought forward RCP2.6 RCP6.0, even though decrease. Thus, these highlight sensitivity health UK trends atmospheric emissions over as well