From drumbeating to marching: Assessing non-state and subnational climate action using data

The 2015 Paris Agreement emphasized non-state actors (NSAs) in climate action, but “greenwashing” concerns persist. UN introduced a framework for NSA accountability through improved reporting. Yet, data remain inconsistent, especially the Global South. We propose refining reporting, broadening collection, and using innovative tech like AI better tracking accountability. With record-setting year 2023 global temperatures, it is abundantly clear that current efforts to curb change are falling painfully short, even wake of landmark Agreement. This groundbreaking treaty ushered new “all hands on deck” paradigm shift tackling change, exemplified by surge voluntary commitments from diverse array entities. number businesses, financial institutions, subnational governments, collectively known as (NSAs), pledging mitigation, financing, adaptation has expanded approximately 300 2014 over 32,500 (Figure 1). These NSAs addressing critical voids left national government efforts, frequently emission reductions surpassing ambitions mandates and1Kuramochi T. Roelfsema M. Hsu A. Lui S. Weinfurter Chan Hale Clapper Chang Höhne N. Beyond action: impact region, city, business greenhouse gas emissions.Clim. Pol. 2020; 20: 275-291Crossref Scopus (63) Google Scholar contributing funding, capacity building, on-the-ground implementation specific actions. California regarded prime example leadership—establishing vehicle standards catalyzed more stringent regulations, alongside being pioneer setting carbon-neutral goal. Companies, too, have set internal carbon prices adopted renewable electricity consumption targets, absence regulation requiring them do so. Collectively, been an essential driving force, lending crucial impetus drumbeating securing coordination while tempo cadence advancing pace required keep goals within reach. first Stocktake concludes, this translated into marching real effectively gaps action implementation? To answer question, evaluate evidence actions’ contributions progress, past 7 years since came we’ve seen mixed picture both. Processes platforms, UN’s Climate Action Portal, evolved improve recording actions, capturing details such their location, stakeholders, nature. But these show inclusiveness not initially intended, revealing shortfall actions encompass adaptation, resilience nature-based solutions.2Chan Amling W. Does orchestration Agenda prioritize mobilize transnational action?.Int. Environ. Agreements. 2019; 19: 429-446Crossref (32) engagement further still skewed toward developed countries, particularly Europe,3Utrecht University CDP Data-Driven EnviroLabGlobal 2022: Progress Ambition Cities. Region, 50http://datadrivenlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Global-Climate-Action_CitiesRegionsCompanies_Final.pdfGoogle there underrepresentation South actors, reported self-disclosures inventory progress major reporting platforms (formerly Carbon Disclosure Project). Even where available, they often incompatible incomplete, rendering aggregate analyses challenging sometimes impossible. Amidst variegated terrain, notable push increased standardization (such High Level Expert Group NSAs’ net zero commitments, among others) methods which disclose well need interoperability—a buzzword exemplifying seamless exchange between platforms. will require urgent attention if be held accountable given substantial regarding accomplishments. Despite growing instance summits mobilization campaigns, little potential impacts achieved. Studies shown only fraction European cities beyond EU target were actually track,4Hsu Tan J. Ng Y.M. Toh Vanda R. Goyal Performance determinants delivering mitigation.Nat. Clim. Chang. 10: 1015-1022https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0879-9Crossref (59) greater failed pledge 2020 after COVID-19 pandemic.3Utrecht In fact, many often, increasingly, fail produce tangible attributable outputs positive impacts,5Chan Deneault Shrivastava Mbeva K. Chengo V. Atela Assessing effectiveness orchestrated five summits.Nat. 2022; 12: 628-633Crossref (7) ambitious achieved.4Hsu concrete results prompted discussions at multiple policy levels. Together with emerging unsubstantiated misleading claims corporations,6Day Mooldijk Smit Posada E. Hans F. Fearnehough H. Kachi Warnecke C. Kuramochi Corporate Responsibility Monitor Transparency Integrity Companies’ Emission Reduction Net-Zero Targets. NewClimate Institute, 2022https://newclimate.org/2022/02/07/corporate-climate-responsibility-monitor-2022/Google findings triggered governments intervene address greenwashing lack accountability, realm net-zero setting. response heightened focus Secretariat “Non-Party Recognition Accountability Framework”7UNFCCCMessage Parties Observers—Recognition Framework non-Party stakeholder action.2023: 20https://unfccc.int/documents/629136Google June 2023. would provide scrutiny, businesses regularly report required, also plans, “independently verified.” While time writing had just launched consultation period proposed framework, timing Stocktake’s (GST) conclusion noteworthy suggests era places significant emphasis deliver effectively. For upcoming phase succeed, identify key requirements success extracting lessons learned initial GST offers opportunity design standardize next accounting offer three recommendations aimed guiding other stakeholders’ necessary investments enhance tracking. First, streamlining processes needed integrate governments. Non-Party introduces parallel approach governments’ own under Agreement, necessarily introducing two-track approach. It remains unclear how countries two tracks theory, meant help ratchet up ambition nationally determined (NDCs) GST’s “facilitative, catalytic cycles.”8Hale Governing zero: conveyor belt. Oxford Net Zero Policy Memo. University, 2021https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2021-11/2021-11%20Hale%20Net%20Zero%20Policy%20Memo.pdfGoogle One way achieve interconnection various stakeholders adopting ecosystem-based aligning standards, governance, evaluation processes. concept “net conveyer belt”8Hale envisions linkage initiatives, endeavors, multitude standard-setting regulatory bodies must align we societal decarbonization collectively. kickstart belt, however, shared elements belt coordinated: initiatives’ should conflict made ensure initiative requirements. Simplified collection lower burden individual make overall aggregation synthesis easier analysts orchestrators Secretariat. A recent EU’s law green companies reliable, comparable, verifiable.9European CommissionGreen Claims.2022https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/circular-economy/green-claims_enGoogle If passes, assertions neutrality backed accurate, complete, date (i.e., reliable); able presented compared comparable); can checked validated independent experts verified). Second, future iterations expand scope including parameters contextualize ambition, necessitating fundamental measurement approaches. reliable needs extend sole numbers emissions include representation types geographies. inputs targets policies investment, outcomes behavioral social environmental indicators reduced emissions—all geographically contextually determined. assess long-term reduction insights cities, regions, companies’ plans. therefore economic sectors, energy, land use relevant developmental geographical contexts. aim, energy use, share renewables mix, interim goals, locations needed. way, interaction alignment or regional economies infrastructure verified. Tracking nuanced adapted account local complexities, allowing comprehensive equitable evaluation. far too long, community focused monitoring momentum, participation, neglecting track goals. meaningfully, high-level metrics tons reduced, populations included, etc., extends surface. instance, singularly encouraging all may unproductive undesirable cannot met credibly, sources, mixes, profiles, capital available different NSAs. Although our recommendations—to simplify simultaneously expanding diversity collected—may appear contradictory, believe both achieved innovations earth observation (EO) technologies potentially game-changing advances generative AI. Digital promising ways seamlessly enhancing interoperability filling gaps.10Hsu Khoo Wainstein Next-Generation Ecosystem Data Mining Knowledge Discovery: Review Collection Technologies.Front. Big Data. 3: 29https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2020.00029Crossref PubMed (13) Scholar,11National Academies SciencesEngineering, Medicine.Greenhouse Gas Emissions Information Decision Making: Going Forward. National Press, 2022https://doi.org/10.17226/26641Google Scholar,12Schletz Mapes B. Nested Accounting Our Atmospheric Commons —Digital Technologies Trusted Interoperability Across Fragmented Systems.Front. Blockchain. 4: 1-10https://doi.org/10.3389/fbloc.2021.789953Crossref processing actors’ involves millions points scattered sources ways, impossible humans monitor. Generative AI, form large-language models (LLMs) powering population chatbots ChatGPT Bard, broaden information accessibility could track. example, LLM trained climate-specific documents define nebulous terms “resilience,” “climate vulnerability,” “adaptation,”13Sietsma A.J. Ford J.D. Callaghan M.W. Minx J.C. research.Environ. Res. Lett. 2021; 16054038Crossref (25) comparisons one country company’s strategy another’s. Race Resilience campaign, increase 4 billion people 2030 difficult says about quality planning efforts.14Fisher Much ado nothing? Why matters.Clim. Dev. 2023; : 1-7https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2023.2204070Crossref (1) More mined digital tools ability understand self-reporting lags. Since approaches governance domain predominantly reflect preferences creators, inherently biased limited scope.15Bulkeley changed urban futures: Environmental politics anthropocene city.Environ. Polit. 30: 266-284https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2021.1880713Crossref (55) Consequently, particular afforded precedence acknowledgment, traditionally emphasizing large-scale mitigation-focused activities entities North-based, large corporations cities. Advances ML analyze massive amounts information—such annual corporate responsibility reports documents, largely unstructured—in previously ways. Incorporating streams reduce cost monitoring, verification give access base data-driven solutions, documenting participating markets, accessing finance.16World BankDigital Monitoring, Reporting, Verification Systems Their Application Future Markets. World Bank, 2022https://doi.org/10.1596/37622Crossref presents important rethink drive effective spur demonstrates recognition promises what seem. solutions contribute environment, merits evaluated merely based increasing impact, prospective quantifiable effects. incorporate deeper understanding ex-post effects materialize implemented. Moving forward, primary paths outside Convention Change (UNFCCC), play vital role best case, UNFCCC’s coherent structure encourage harmonization consistency efforts. Toward goal, collaborate UNFCCC engage satellite technology, governance. Priority placed developing connect goals.17Chan Boran I. Asselt Ellinger P. Garcia Hermwille L. Liti Mert Roger C.B. et al.Climate sustainable development decade: framework.Glob. Policy. 245-259Crossref (11) requires drawing upon organizations undertaking target-setting transition plans develop putting place mandatory disclosure. An enhanced integration disconnected moment 2). It’s move marching. work was supported IKEA Foundation grant (G-2010-01689), NSF (no. 193220 A.H.), Carnegie Corporation (G-21-58463 A.H.). authors declare no competing interests.