Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks
The literature on structural breaks focuses on ex post identification of break points that may have occurred in the past. While this question is important, a more challenging problem facing econometricians is to provide forecasts when the data generating process is unstable. The purpose of this paper is to provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of model instability. We ma...
متن کاملForecasting Long Memory Processes Subject to Structural Breaks
We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can be well approximated by an autoregressive (AR) model and suggest using an information criterion (AIC o...
متن کاملCorrection to ‘The geometry of structural equilibrium’
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160759.].
متن کاملRobustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-Correction Models
In a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, and indeed forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to the data. A new explanation for the empirical success of second differencing is proposed. We consider model tra...
متن کاملModeling Equilibrium Relationships: Error Correction Models with Strongly Autoregressive Data
Political scientists often argue that political processes move together in the long run. Examples include partisanship and government approval, conflict and cooperation among countries, public policy sentiment and policy activity, economic evaluations and economic conditions, and taxing and spending. Error correction models and cointegrating relationships are often used to characterize these eq...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Econometrics
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0304-4076
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.03.004