Forecasting Turkey's Hazelnut Export Quantities with Facebook's Prophet Algorithm and Box-Cox Transformation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Time series forecasting methods are used by an evolving field of data analytics for the prediction market trends, sales, and demands. Turkey is major producer hazelnut in world. If wants to continue its domination protect price-setting role, time could be key factors accordingly. There a few studies that focused on export quantities Turkey, this study uses recently developed algorithm implements power transformation increase forecast accuracy. The presented research aims Turkey’s coming 36-months starting from June 2020. process was conducted with help Facebook’s Prophet algorithm. To improve accuracy, Box-Cox also implemented process. find out stationarity periodicity set, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test autocorrelation function applied time-series data. algorithm, transformation, projected quantity over five hundred thousand tons 07/2020 06/2023. were increment trend, slope trend has increased since 2008 0.66 % per month. revealed seasonality amounts indicate monthly oscillations. volumes start reach their peak value October because August harvest hazelnuts Turkey.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Advances in distributed computing and artificial intelligence journal
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2255-2863']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14201/adcaij20211013347