Forecasting of Domestic Electricity Consumption in Assam, India

Though the power supply scenario in Assam is not comparable with other developed states of India, yet it improving gradually. With increasing household electrification rate, income and technological development, share Domestic electricity consumption state experiencing a rapid growth comparison to sectors like Industry, Commerce, Agriculture etc. therefore forecasting domestic become very important meet needs consumer. The aim this study suggest best model for Assam. For purpose, three models viz. Multiple Linear Regression considering effects population per capita income; ARIMA Growth curves viz Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Exponential, Logarithmic Inverse are used time period 1980-2018. When compared terms diagnostic criteria- Adjusted R2, RMSE, AME MAPE, then found that exponential fits data better than models. After that, comparisons made among Regression, Exponential by their average relative error efficiency highest followed Therefore, has been done next 10 years.