Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models

Research on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection development, social issues, allow industrials elements to operate effectively reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle a comparison structure application different models in monthly using cross-correlation function then analyze association between exogenous variables. Moreover, SARIMA-X model is tested US prediction via proposed method first time literature review study. The performance that has been compared with SARIMA (p, d, q) * (P, D, Q)s. results from RMSE MAPE indicate superiority best model. By applying method, forecast until 2025. success allows use patterns. If seasonal approach continues, United States’ (16%) (24%) are expected increase by study provide effective information decision-makers be credible determine energy planning future sustainable policies.