Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

Forecasting Mexico’s Inflation: the Effects of an Inflation Targeting Regime

This paper studies the effects the implementation of an inflation targeting (IT) regime has on the dynamics of inflation in Mexico. We contextualize the need for a regime change and study whether the implementation of this regime has made a considerable change in the dynamics of inflation in Mexico. Consumer prices are modelled using a markup model. The markup model suggests a long run relation...

Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking

This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the output gap. Attention is paid to the real-time estimation problem. After reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of the various output gap measures. First, I examine the usefulness of the output gap for inflation forecasting and show that the real-time...

Modeling and Forecasting Iranian Inflation with Time Varying BVAR Models

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying BVAR models for Iranian inflation. Forecast accuracy of a BVAR model with Litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying BVAR model (a version introduced by Doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying BVAR model, where the autoregressive coefficients are held constant and only the deterministic components are allo...

An Inflation Forecasting Model for the 1980s

Economic Reliability Forecasting in an Uncertain World

Substantial work has applied stochastic techniques to network reliability models. These techniques can estimate risk, variance and uncertainty values. Unfortunately, these models do not address the issues of revenues, return on investment, or the time-value of money. To address these issues, we have developed an Economic Reliability Analysis [ERA] framework at the University of Virginia that fu...