Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes

Abstract Forecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence previous behaviour rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings volcanic activity and may compromise the success emergency procedures. quality forecasts has improved over past 50 years, owing mainly to a growing sophistication statistical analyses unrest. Physics-based have yet achieve same level maturity. Their application been delayed by view that too complex share patterns can be described deterministic manner. This being increasingly challenged an emerging line inquiry understand how further integrating approaches with new constraints on possible outcomes from physics-based criteria. introduction reasoning yields rational explanations why not perfect and, as result, offers opportunities for increasing public confidence eruption.