FORECASTING DROUGHT WITH ARIMA MODEL AND STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)

Application of the ARIMA Models in Drought Forecasting Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to quantify the classification of drought in the Guanzhong Plain, China. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to fit and forecast the SPI series. Most of the selected ARIMA models are seasonal models (SARIMA). The forecast results show that the forecasting power of the ARIMA models increases with the incre...

Drought monitoring using deciles index standardized precipitation index and effective Drought index in tehran province iran

A comparison of parametric and non-parametric methods of standardized precipitation index (SPI) in drought monitoring (Case study: Gorganroud basin)

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most common index for drought monitoring. Although the calculation of this index is usually done by using the gamma distribution fitting of precipitation data, studies have shown that for accurate monitoring of drought, the optimal distribution of precipitation in each month should be determined. On the other hand, in non-stationary time series,...

drought monitoring with standard precipitation index (spi) and drought forecasting with multi-layers perceptron (case study: tehran and alborz provinces)

drought is the one of the repeating phenomenon in all areas with high rainfall and low rainfall climates and is known as a natural disaster. iran is one of the countries those involved with this phenomenon in different parts of it especially in river basins. tehran province due to its importance in terms of social and political faced with growing population that it would contributes to the redu...

GIS analysis for vulnerability assessment of drought in Khuzestan province in Iran using standardized precipitation index (SPI)

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index to provide good estimations of the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial pattern of drought by SPI index. In this paper, patterns of drought hazard in Khuzestan are evaluated according to the data of 17 weather stations during data recording. The influe...